Just a couple of weeks ago the financial world’s biggest worry was the plunging price of oil. Supply was up, stockpiles were building and speculation was pointing towards $40 a barrel, a price at which the fracking/shale oil “miracle” would evaporate. A trillion dollars of related junk debt would default, taking a big part of the leveraged speculating community along for the ride.
Then it all changed. Someone attacked some ships and oil infrastructure in the Middle East, the US and Saudi Arabia accused Iran, and now the fear is that a major regional war will interrupt the flow of oil, sending its price way up and causing a financial crisis at least as severe as a shale oil debt collapse.
This is a legitimate concern, for two reasons.
First, oil shocks have happened in the past, most notably during the Arab-Israeli war of the 1970s. So we know what they do, and it isn’t pretty. Gas prices jump, workers can’t afford their commute, the economy slows dramatically and pretty much everyone other than domestic energy companies suffers badly.
Second and potentially more serious, the pretext for this war is so blatantly false that it risks destroying what little creditability the US government has left. Think about it: With the US doing everything it can to delegitimize and destabilize Iran while positioning assets for an invasion, Iran’s leaders … start attacking oil tankers in its offshore waters.
Does that make sense? Of course not. Much more likely is that this is yet another false flag – that is, an incident faked to give a pretext for war – and a clumsy one at that.
For readers who aren’t clear on the false flag concept and its ubiquity in geopolitics, here are just a few of the dozens of documented examples:
- Japanese troops blew up a train track in 1931, blamed it on China and used it to justify the invasion of Manchuria.
- After taking power, the Nazis burned down their own parliament building and blamed the communists. Later on, they faked attacks on German citizens and blamed the Poles, to justify the subsequent invasion of that country.
- In 1939 the Soviets shelled one of their own villages and blamed Finland, prior to invading.
- In 1954 Israeli terrorist cells operating in Egypt bombed U.S. diplomatic facilities, leaving behind evidence implicating Arabs.
- The CIA hired Iranians in the 1950s to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to ignite a rebellion against the democratically-elected government. After the rebellion succeeded the US installed a hand-picked dictator.
- The US staged a naval engagement — the Gulf of Tonkin incident – and blamed the North Vietnamese, providing a pretext for entering the Vietnam War.
- The FBI used provocateurs in the 1950s through 1970s to carry out violent acts and falsely blame them on political activists.
- In 1984, Israel faked radio messages that linked Lybia to terrorism. The US bombed Libya immediately thereafter.
- Russian blew up apartment buildings in 1999 and falsely blamed it on Chechens, in order to justify an invasion of Chechnya
The list goes on seemly forever. But these examples are enough to make the twin points that 1) lots of countries employ false flags attacks, and 2) the US is especially fond of them.
There’s just one problem this time: Everyone is on to it. Even the New York Times, which has never met a Mid East war it didn’t love, sees through the deception:
As Trump Accuses Iran, He Has One Problem: His Own Credibility
To President Trump, the question of culpability in the explosions that crippled two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman is no question at all. “It’s probably got essentially Iran written all over it,” he declared on Friday.
The question is whether the writing is clear to everyone else. For any president, accusing another country of an act of war presents an enormous challenge to overcome skepticism at home and abroad. But for a president known for falsehoods and crisis-churning bombast, the test of credibility appears far more daunting.
For two and a half years in office, Mr. Trump has spun out so many misleading or untrue statements about himself, his enemies, his policies, his politics, his family, his personal story, his finances and his interactions with staff that even his own former communications director once said “he’s a liar” and many Americans long ago concluded that he cannot be trusted.
Fact-checking Mr. Trump is a full-time occupation in Washington, and in no other circumstance is faith in a president’s word as vital as in matters of war and peace. The public grew cynical about presidents and intelligence after George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq based on false accusations of weapons of mass destruction, and the doubt spilled over to Barack Obama when he accused Syria of gassing its own people. As Mr. Trump confronts Iran, he carries the burden of their history and his own.
“The problem is twofold for them,” said John E. McLaughlin, a deputy C.I.A. director during the Iraq war. “One is people will always rightly question intelligence because it’s not an exact science. But the most important problem for them is their own credibility and contradictions.”
The task is all the more formidable for Mr. Trump, who himself has assailed the reliability of America’s intelligence agencies and even the intelligence chiefs he appointed, suggesting they could not be believed when their conclusions have not fit his worldview.
All of that can raise questions when international tension flares up, like the explosion of the two oil tankers on Thursday, a provocation that fueled anxiety about the world’s most important oil shipping route and the prospect of escalation into military conflict. When Mr. Trump told Fox News on Friday that “Iran did do it,” he was asking his country to accept his word.
“Trump’s credibility is about as solid as a snake oil salesman,” said Jen Psaki, who was the White House communications director and top State Department spokeswoman under Mr. Obama. “That may work for selling his particular brand to his political base, but during serious times, it leaves him without a wealth of good will and trust from the public that what he is saying is true even on an issue as serious as Iran’s complicity in the tanker explosions.”
Combine these two problems – a Middle East war sending oil much higher, and a near-universal lack of belief in the rationale for that war – and the remaining faith in American competence and honesty might evaporate.
This takes us back to finance, specifically to a monetary system based on fiat currency which depends for its value on our collective trust in the people managing it.
The Fed will respond to an oil crisis by cutting interest rates back to – or below – zero. But will this be met with euphoria as in the past or with skepticism, as happened in Europe recently? If it’s the latter, remember what gold did the last time there was both an oil shock and a loss of faith in government:
45 thoughts on "Will A False Flag Iran War Cause A Financial Crisis?"
Trump is playing most here like a drum. There is no way he will have a war over a drone and piss off the Japanese and others who said not to do it. He’s a loud mouth and added more sanctions without any blowback. Iran knows it will be a loser if it happens and they are not stupid enough to do anything more.
Libya and Syria belong to Obama and Hillary.
There was a plan offered to JFK by the Pentagon to ‘harm’ a US city and blame it on Cuba, but he turned it down, and was a bit upset that anyone with a brain would come up with it. No one at the Pentagon was relieved of duty.
The “Nazis” did NOT burn the Reichstag and they did NOT massacre Germans in German territory stolen by Poland.
Why do you diminish your own credibility?
https://inconvenienthistory.com/11/1/6391
I’m frankly baffled WRT why we might consider war with Iran over this incident. We have no reliance on Iranian oil, and are in fact a net exporter of hydrocarbon fuel. What dog do we have in this fight?
Want to close the Persian Gulf and drive oil through the roof? Go ahead, a$$holes. Personally, I’d love the increased profit. Go for it. The only nations that will suffer are Japan & the Euroweenies.
We could not need a drop, but that won’t stop the profiteers from exploding the price of gas at US pumps.
A few years ago, a rig in the Gulf was ‘potentially threatened’ by an approaching hurricane, and reports were circulating about what it could potentially do.
The stations here in in So Cal raised their prices 50 cents by the end of the day because of the ‘potential’.
Besides, it’s not about oil. It’s about CONTROLLING Iranian oil, Greater Israel (or keeping Israel’s enemies busy in case someone finally gets sick of Israeli Atrocities and War Crimes), and getting them to bow to a Rothschild bank.
Syria. Cuba. Iran. N Korea…..No Rothschild bank.
Ah so we are supposed to rely on fake news NYT when they lie billions of more times than Trump? I like your motive that it may be a false flag in order to keep the price of oil stable. But at over $3 a gallon? I remember when it was below $2 not too long ago, and no collapse happened. So you provide a motive and “evidence” that Trump is a liar. So where is the proof a false flag actually occurred? The most important link is missing. 😉
No. A False Flag war with Iran will hide the coming financial crisis! Iran will be blamed for THAT, too. Never our government, never Central Banks, never Israel.
Only three countries do not have a Central Bank. North Korea, Cuba, and you guessed it…IRAN. Israel wants their magic money machine open in IRAN and IRAN refuses to allow them to do it.
Keep in mind, since the days of Persia (Iran today). Iran has NEVER been the aggressor in any conflict EVER.
America is so fucking evil and is Israel’s bitch.
Don’t forget; No bank in Syria. Which is why they ain’t givin’ up.
At least the US has finally admitted ISIS is ‘another one of ours’…..not that any American is paying attention.
So much for the ‘War on Terror’.
Syria does has a central bank:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bank_of_Syria
‘Syrian Civil War’? lol….’money laundering’…lol….Gotta’ love Mossadpedia; Lies, lies, and more lies.
By the way; Iraq had a Central Bank, too. They’re both just not Rothschild-owned.
You are quite right Occams, thank you. This article says it all:
“Point is, as we watch our pathetic corporate media continue
their manufacturing of consent for war with Iran, don’t fall for it.
These wars are all about the banking. And millions of innocent people
are killed in them. Millions more have their lives destroyed.”
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/i-know-which-country-the-u-s-will-invade-next/
Unfortunately, NOTHING is going to stop this war. Israel wants it too badly, and US soldiers will disobey their SWORN DUTY, and instead, follow the dictates of criminal’s illegal demands.
I always assumed this to be the case too, George, until I checked Wiki – now I’m not so sure, but also very sceptical about Wiki as I think that the CIA et al manipulate it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_central_banks
I think that might be the reason, wars are always good ways to hide total failed government, it’s like the kid shooting up his schoolmates after having through disappointement after disappointement
In your list of false flags, you need to include something about the controlled demolition of World Trade Center Building 7 and the 9/11 False Flag.
The false flag that started them all in America, The Boston Tea Party. Where they dressed up like Native Americans and attacked the ship carrying tea.
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Shhhhhhhhh…Politically Correct people NEVER mention 9/11, as it leans towards anti-Semitism!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d084b02b990706e473bd734be780b51dd20d0d6540ec272292e7120754518dd.jpg
You have far more confidence in the competence of our government than I.
Israel ran the show. Dual Citizenship’ers in the US government just cleared the way
Ok. So radical Islam had nothing to do with 9/11. It was all the Jews.
Got it.
Exactly. When someone or some group is used as the Fall Guy, they’re called ‘patsies’; Oswald, Lanza, Paddock, Cruz, etc. Whn the FACTS and EVIDENCE far outweigh a ‘story’ only an idiot – or an Amerikan (I repeat myself) – would believe.
But nice try, Pumpkin!
Oh. PS: You DO know that the US now openly admits al Qaeda and ISIS BELONG to the US, right? And Hitlery herself openly stated (video) “al Qaeda is an ally”, right?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/682c6fd77241600313e0a3133df9312ee4a9fc99139366794f1a546fbc500535.png
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W-o-w…… mind….*blown*…… The scales have fallen from my eyes, thanks to you. Now I’m fully WOKE.
Thank you, crazy people, wherever you may be, for……the TRUTH.
Ever notice how people like you can NEVER rebut? You just attempt some juvenile insult?
Toodles
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Yessssss……Jews are guilty because they’re Jews.
No, ZIONISTS are guilty because they’re Zionists. Biiiiiiiiiiig difference. Only you can’t see nor figure this out.
“The US and Israel are the 2 greatest threats to world peace today – and perhaps to humanity itself” ~ Stephen Lendmen (A Jew)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b09647184ae038fc7258c460b534fd20449406a21dd70d19a6423efb01fe511.jpg
Occams…. You need to read the right history, not BS versions.
lol….And end up like you? NOT A CHANCE. I’m surround by gullible idiots. Doesn’t mean I’m envious.
Were jews flying the airplanes?
Experienced pilots in those ACTUAL jets said they couldn’t do it – and every pilot in a simulator couldn’t do it, so no, remote controlled – which please don’t tell me can’t be done. They’ve been doing it since the 70’s.
Besides, even if it WAS really, actually people inside and flying? Jews would NEVER, EVER sacrifice themselves. Not a chance. They let everyone else die – just like all the Jews with the Odigo messaging service getting a text 2 hours before to NOT go in the Towers.
And no, sorry – that’s a proven FACT
I am sure that Jews had an advanced notice. Most of them working in the building were late for work that day or sick. What do they say to the survivors that suffered through the event?
There were Massad agents arrested for celebrating in NJ.
However, as an ex AF pilot, I could have hit those building with one hand tied behind my back, as could most of my friends. The buildings were wider than many runways.
‘Finding them’ seemed to be the trick. I watched guys in simulators with that one airline captain, ex-AF – Russ Wittenberg, and John Lear, and most couldn’t FIND the building to hit it.
R/C? Not problem. Just put the coordinates in. And besides….a 270 degree descending turn in a commercial craft? The traffic controllers watched that maneuver above the Pentagon on their screens and said; ‘Finally. The military has arrived.”
That was just before their supervisor came in, confiscated ALL their recordings, broke them into little pieces, and put that into several cans.
But no, no coverup, right?
Many people say, if you go into the details of 911, it appears the Bush Family Dynasty had significant involvement with the 911 operation. I do not think the Bush Family Dynasty is under the control of Israel.
Everyone is – except for the countries Israel wants the US to attack for them.
‘Give me control of a nation’s money supply and I care not who makes the laws’ ~ Rothschild
So Occams, do you recommend buying regular gold, or is it worth the extra dollars for that special nazi gold?
lol…Like I said; No rebut. Futile attempts at juvenile insults. I simply point out the facts and truth.
Bam! Slam dunk! Well-played, madam. Good show.
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I’m not sure Trump’s credibility is lower than American intelligence agencies. The NYT doesn’t have too much credibility on foreign wars and such either. On the whole, even though he is astutely ignorant and inept, surrounded by ill chosen staff and council, I have more faith in Trump’s good and peaceful intentions than those of the malevolent agencies or the NYT. Unfortunately he is married to Bibi, but his instincts offer a glimmer of hope.
Trump has fooled many. He is a Puppet for Israel, Jared is his handler. Trump has no intentions. He just went from a diabolical real estate monger to a corrupted political puppet for Israel who made him wealthy.
I’d like to see that gold chart adjusted for inflation 1970- 1980. Then we would really see what happened when…..
Wouldn’t matter. The only gold in America is in the hands of some people. There’s not a bar in Fort Knox. If gold ever became super valuable from the Central Banks game, they’d just make a law and take it from you. Just as they did in 1934. FDR announcing the NEW DEAL in 1933. They stole the American people;s gold to pay for it in 1934. They gave the American gold holders $20 an ounce. Once they brought it all back from the people, they raised the price overnight to $35 an ounce. Instant profit for the CENTRAL BANK AND POLITICIANS but not YOU or I.