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Extreme Charts – December 22

by John Rubino ◆ December 22, 2020 5 Comments

It’s official: This has been the weirdest year in US economic history.

Starting with the shape of the recent recession, even 2007 — an odd one in its own right — looks almost normal when compared with 2020,

Job losses in recession weirdest year 

Labor force participation and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet have veered in opposite directions.

labor force participation weirdest year 

The government is spending like crazy while tax receipts stagnate.

US government spending weirdest year 

Growth of the money supply has gone vertical.

US money supply growth weirdest year 

Meanwhile, a big share of this government spending/Fed money creation is going to bail out industries run by morons who spent the past decade buying back their own shares with borrowed money. The airlines, for instance:

Airline industry stock buybacks weirdest year 

Despite all of the above, stocks are valued as if 2021 will be a financial paraidse. “Tech” stocks like Airbnb and Tesla have blown past the valuation records set during the bubble-against-which–all-others-are-measured, the 1990s.

Stock prices to book value weirdest year 

And investors’ confidence in current equity valuations is higher than it’s ever been.

Investor confidence in stock valuations weirdest year 

If “weird” equals “bad” in economics — which it frequently does — the odds of this ending well are rapidly approaching zero.  

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