To understand just how grim the coming decade is likely to be for the world’s super-rich, let’s start with three premises: 1) Capitalist democracy — defined as free individuals managing their own property and periodically electing new leaders — is the only system of social organization that’s consistent with human nature and is, therefore, sustainable. […]
Why A Flu Outbreak In China Can Spook Global Markets
When people talk about empires of the past, they generally mean Rome and Britain. But the biggest and in some ways most interesting empire was built and run by the Mongols in the 13th and 14th centuries. At its peak it stretched from China to Eastern Europe, which is more territory than Rome ever controlled. […]
Too Bad They’re Not Gold Bugs: A Review Of HBO’s Years And Years
HBO’s new series Years And Years begins in the more-or-less present, with the Lyons, an aggressively diverse UK Family that’s trying – and mostly succeeding – to navigate life’s complexities. There’s the acerbically funny grandmother, the gay grandson and his illegal immigrant mate, the African wife of another grandson, the wheelchair-bound sister who nevertheless gets […]
Last Year’s Treasure Becomes This Year’s Trash
Not so long ago the US economy had some bright spots that seemed to justify a general sense of optimism. The fracking revolution had turned the country into the world’s largest oil producer with, apparently, a lot more to come. And the growing number of tech “unicorns” – private companies with valuations exceeding $1 billion […]
Here Comes The Deluge Of Meaningless “Good News”
Today’s relief rally is brought to you by chastened US and Chinese trade negotiators who are now working on a “mini” trade deal that will apparently include a reduction in US tariffs in return for some minor Chinese concessions on things like mandatory joint venture partners for foreign companies wanting to set up shop in […]
So Much For Goldilocks
Stock prices are high and fairly stable, while interest rates are low and fairly stable. A casual observer might infer from this that the global financial markets are experiencing one of those fabled Goldilocks moments where everything is just right. But under the surface things are anything but just right. Among the high (or low)-lights: […]
Stumbling Towards Chaos: All This Happened In Just One Week
Every week is eventful these days. But the most recent one stands out for sheer edge-of-the-abyss when-it-rains-it pours diversity. Some of the highlights: US stocks fell for the 5th straight week “logging the longest weekly losing streak since June 2011.” The US yield curve inverted decisively as long-term Treasury yields plunged. Past yield curve inversions […]
Beef Just Lost Its Place In The Fast Food Burger World
Last year I read an article about the Impossible Burger, a plant-based patty that was supposed to rival the real thing. Intrigued, I called a friend who lives in a neighboring town and appreciates strange but environmentally cool things, and we met at a restaurant that served Impossible Burgers. They were good. Close to meat […]
What Went Wrong With Pensions — And Why The Whole World Should Be Worried
The past decade was a uniquely smooth stretch of financial highway. Pretty much every major asset class – stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, you name it – did well, making it hard for conventional investors to lose money and easy for them to earn outsized returns. So why then are US public sector pensions […]
Michael Pento: China Can’t Stop What’s Coming
As this longest-ever expansion finally runs out of steam, the question on everyone’s mind is, “who will save us this time?” The last big crisis was “fixed” by a combination of lower interest rates globally and massive buying of commodities by China. But with interest rates still at cyclical lows in a big part of […]
Ocean Shipping Rates Plunge: Just A Blip Or The End Of Globalization?
The Baltic Dry Index represents the cost of renting an ocean-going container ship to move goods from, say, Chinese factories to the Port of Los Angeles. The more stuff being made and sold, the higher the demand for such ships, and thus the higher the price to rent one. And vice versa. This is definitely […]
This Is New: Governments Ramp Up Borrowing IN ANTICIPATION Of A Slowdown
The business cycle has its stages, and they’re usually both predictable and logical. For example, governments tend to generate a lot of tax revenue late in an expansion as more people get jobs and start paying income taxes and rising stock prices generate big capital gains. Meanwhile, less has to be spent on social safety […]
Recession And Stocks In Free-Fall: Michael Pento’s 2019
Money manager Michael Pento has been bearish on both stocks and bonds for some time. 2019 is the year, he says, when the big crash finally arrives. Some Predictions for 2019 Bond Yields Continue to Fall in First Half of Year The bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy […]
Three Things That Will Definitely Happen In 2019
Much about 2019 is uncertain. But a few things are pretty much guaranteed, including the following: Government debt will rise at an accelerating rate Like a life-long dieter who finally gives up and decides to eat himself to death, the US is now committed to trillion-dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see. […]
California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis
California Governor Jerry Brown inherited a $27 billion deficit from Arnold Schwarzenegger eight years ago. This month he’s leaving his successor a $13.8 billion surplus and a $14.5 billion rainy day fund balance. Pretty good right? Approximately 48 other governors would kill for those numbers. Unfortunately it’s all a mirage. California, as home to Silicon […]
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