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As Solar Eats The Energy Sector, It’s Time To Revise The “Real Assets” List

by John Rubino ◆ November 9, 2019 11 Comments

As  Solar Eats The Energy Sector, It’s Time To Revise The “Real Assets” List

In the energy market, there’s always a revolution going on somewhere. For most of human history, light and heat were provided by wood and candles. Then we discovered whale oil, and in the early 1800s lamps replaced candles. Later in that century, kerosene, a petroleum derivative, became the lamp oil of choice, and the whaling […]

Tales From The Casino, Part 1: Funds That Bet On Volatility Might SPIKE Volatility, Crashing The Markets

by John Rubino ◆ May 13, 2019 10 Comments

Tales From The Casino, Part 1: Funds That Bet On Volatility Might SPIKE Volatility, Crashing The Markets

It’s a measure of modern financial markets’ absurdity that bets on bets on bets have come to seem normal. Maybe acronyms like CLO and CDO make them sound scientific. Or maybe it’s the sense that if Wall Street’s “rocket scientists” create something it must be highly advanced and therefore beneficial for society. But in reality, […]

Michael Pento: Here’s How You Know The Market Is Overvalued

by John Rubino ◆ April 29, 2019 10 Comments

There’s a lively debate out there over the size of the Everything Bubble. In the following excerpt, money manager Michael Pento concludes that this bubble both histocially huge and soon to be popped. When Overvalued And Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often […]

The End Of The Bull Market, In Three Charts

by John Rubino ◆ April 3, 2019 15 Comments

The End Of The Bull Market, In Three Charts

Stocks have completely recovered from their flash bear market of late 2018. But now they face a hard question: Can already record high prices continue to rise in the face of falling corporate profits? Let’s start with the “falling corporate profits” part: A business generates improving profits when the things it sells rise in price […]

Michael Pento: Finally, Corporate Stock Buybacks Blow Up

by John Rubino ◆ December 18, 2018 10 Comments

Michael Pento: Finally, Corporate Stock Buybacks Blow Up

The last few years of the Everything Bubble were driven by the ultimate dumb money: corporations borrowing to buy back their stock at record high prices. A whole generation of CEOs and CFOs were able to pad both their reputations and their year-end bonuses this way while, it seemed, blatantly screwing over their employees and […]

The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Is Getting Whacked, And Why “Moneyness” Matters

by John Rubino ◆ December 10, 2018 14 Comments

The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Is Getting Whacked, And Why “Moneyness” Matters

A few years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) – which traditionally held “monetary assets” like government bonds, cash and gold to back up the Swiss franc — decided to branch out into common stocks. This was a departure, but for a while a brilliant one. The SNB loaded up on Big Tech like Apple, […]

Has This Become A “Short Everything In Sight” Market?

by John Rubino ◆ November 25, 2018 13 Comments

Has This Become A “Short Everything In Sight” Market?

One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their […]

Corporate Share Buybacks Looking Dumber By The Day

by John Rubino ◆ November 21, 2018 12 Comments

Corporate Share Buybacks Looking Dumber By The Day

A recent MarketWatch article notes that: GE was one of Wall Street’s major share buyback operators between 2015 and 2017; it repurchased $40 billion of shares at prices between $20 and $32. The share price is now $8.60, so the company has liquidated between $23 billion and $29 billion of its shareholders’ money on this […]

Michael Pento: Falling Corporate Earnings Will Fuel The Next Leg Of The Bear Market

by John Rubino ◆ November 20, 2018 8 Comments

If corporate earnings rise in 2019 like Wall Street analysts expect, stocks are a screaming buy at these bear-market levels. But earnings won’t rise and stocks are not a buy, says money manager Michael Pento: Earnings Recession of 2019 President Trump’s plan to stimulate the economy, known as The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, was […]

GE, Nvidia, Nordstrom, Bitcoin All Tank, And The Fed Notices

by John Rubino ◆ November 16, 2018 11 Comments

GE, Nvidia, Nordstrom, Bitcoin All Tank, And The Fed Notices

The sense that something isn’t right out there just got a lot stronger. And the Fed, in response, is now tiptoeing back towards QE. Let’s start with the sudden bad news: Chipmaker Nvidia plunges after missing on revenue and guidance (CNBC) – Nvidia stock fell as much as 19 percent Thursday after the company reported […]

A Palpable Sense Of Panic

by John Rubino ◆ November 12, 2018 11 Comments

A Palpable Sense Of Panic

Based the last few days’ headlines you’d never know the world is in year 10 of a pretty good expansion. Check this out: Not terrified of a recession? These stocks hint you should be Cyclical commodities continue to weaken, gold moves in relation Italian banks on verge of new crisis on €400 million hole at […]

The World’s Smartest Investors Can’t Figure Out The Markets – And That’s A Really Bad Thing

by John Rubino ◆ November 3, 2018 9 Comments

Hedge fund managers sit at the top of the financial world’s food chain. They’re generally seen as the smartest money managers, and their companies have the most flexibility to pursue new opportunities. The result is supposed to be the best possible returns – for clients who can afford the high fees. But lately things haven’t […]

Rising Wages = Shrinking Corporate Profit Margins … And Falling Stock Prices?

by John Rubino ◆ July 10, 2018 2 Comments

Rising Wages = Shrinking Corporate Profit Margins … And Falling Stock Prices?

Today’s Wall Street Journal contains a couple of charts that illustrate a relationship that’s not getting much media attention these days: The fact that tightening labor markets are forcing companies to raise wages, in the process squeezing their own profit margins. Historically this margin compression has been either a cause of or contributor to cyclical […]

Late-Cycle Sadness: Value Investors Give Up And Buy Netflix, Apple

by John Rubino ◆ June 4, 2018 4 Comments

Late-Cycle Sadness: Value Investors Give Up And Buy Netflix, Apple

Back in the late 1990s I interviewed for an analyst job with a value-oriented money manager. My main impression of our talk was how sad the guy was. The tech bubble was in full swing, any little nothing company with even a tangential relationship to the Internet was soaring, and this poor guy’s cash-rich, super-safe […]

When Investor Psychology Turns Dark, All News Is Bad News

by John Rubino ◆ April 25, 2018 1 Comment

When Investor Psychology Turns Dark, All News Is Bad News

Big companies report blow-out earnings. Home prices soar. North Korea promises to end its nuke program, possibly averting another Asian war. And stocks fall. Does this mean the news no longer matters? That’s exactly what it means. But it never did matter. In a world this complex, big things both good and bad are always […]

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