Back in the 1990s we did our first cash-out refi. And it was amazing. The bank lowered our monthly mortgage payment AND wrote us a check for $16,000. I told that story to everyone I met for months afterward, and they were, without exception, astounded. That, in a nutshell, is the refi paradise in which […]
The Number That Ends This Cycle…Part 2: Goldman Sachs Makes Its Choice
Everyone seems to agree that if interest rates keep rising a recession and equities bear market will ensue. But no one knows where the breaking point is in terms of, say 10-year Treasury yields. So it’s become a topic of debate with a lot of heavy-hitters offering opinions. Yesterday Goldman Sachs weighed in: Goldman: Don’t […]
Is Oil About To Become Front-Page News? “A Glut That Held Prices Down For Years Is Essentially Gone”
Here’s a new indicator for you: It seems that the difference between the price of oil here and abroad is a measure of tightness in the market, with a rising spread indicating higher prices in the future, with all the inflationary pressures that that implies. From today’s Wall Street Journal: Trans-Atlantic Oil-Price Spread Soars as […]
Italy: An Anti-Euro Government Takes Power In the Heart Of The Eurozone
Ah, Italy. My people; fun to be around, a nightmare to govern. And now an existential threat to the European Union, the euro currency, and the global bond markets. After suffering for over a decade under a monetary regime designed by and for efficient economies like Germany, the Italian people have finally said enough, giving […]
There’s A Number That Ends This Cycle — But What Is It?
After an epic (generation-spanning at the long end) decline in interest rates, the trend has finally reversed. Which means, if history is still a reliable guide, there’s a number that ends this cycle and ushers in the next recession and equities bear market. But what is it? Here’s a chart (from MishTalk via Crescat Capital) […]
Iraq Gets A Modern Political System: Low Turnout, Surging Populism, Potential Chaos
Remember when Iraqis were first able to vote in national elections back in the 2000s, and huge numbers braved terrorist threats to go to the polls and celebrated afterwards? Their enthusiasm contrasted sharply with US elections where turnout was low and the voters that did show up tended towards ambivalence. But fast forward a decade […]
Russia Deploys Exotic New Weapon: A “Budget Surplus”
The price of oil is rising, which is obviously good news for those who sell it to the rest of us. Russia in particular seems to be enjoying the current trend, so much so that — if I’m understanding this correctly – Moscow is now receiving more in taxes than it’s spending. This is producing […]
Kirkland Lake On Its Way To Becoming “The Premier Mining Company In The World”
Excerpted from Jay Tayor’s MiningStocks.com Kirkland Lake Gold is by far the best up-and coming gold miner I am aware of. And Novo Resources CEO Dr. Quinton Hennigh, who knows Kirkland’s Chairman Eric Sprott as well as anyone in the mining industry, told me Eric won’t be satisfied until he makes Kirkland the preeminent gold […]
The 1970s All Over Again? Part 1: The Middle East Explodes
For most Americans the geopolitical/financial crises of the 1970s happened so long ago that they’re about as relevant as the Revolutionary War or the Reformation. But for seasoned citizens who were around back then and paying attention, the similarities to today are becoming both eerie and scary. Consider: In the early 1970s the Middle East […]
New Loan Sharks Entering The Credit Card Business
A while back, a writer (whose name and story details I unfortunately don’t remember) was researching the credit card business and tried to figure out how card issuers decide which customers to pursue. To this end he created a series of fake personas ranging from an affluent straight-arrow who always pays her bills on time […]
Here’s When Everyone Should Have Known That Argentina Would Implode
About a year ago, Argentina – which has inflated away and/or defaulted on its currency every few decades for the past century – issued 100-year government bonds. And the issue was oversubscribed, with yield-crazed developed-world institutions throwing money at the prospect of a lifetime of 7% coupon payments. A contemporaneous media account of the deal: […]
Plunging Birth Rates Confuse Economists But Are Actually Great News
Birth rates are plunging almost everywhere. The first chart below shows that even notoriously populous China and India have entered the same reproductive neighborhood as the US and are not that far from the assisted living center formerly known as Japan. Which is to say their populations have not only stopped increasing, they’ll actually start […]
Paper Gold Market Normalizing, Silver Getting Even More Extreme
The past few months have seen some unusual, maybe even unique, developments in the gold and silver futures markets, with gold becoming extremely bearish and silver almost ridiculously bullish. Neither imbalance has amounted to much in terms of price action, so it’s not clear whether the most recent changes matter. Still, the action in both […]
Argentina Joins Venezuela In The Currency Crisis Club
In interviews, whenever I try to make the case that US policies are leading to the kinds of currency disruptions common in developing countries, I say something like, “For a glimpse of America’s future, take a look at Argentina, where they’re eating cats and dogs because of hyperinflation … wait, no, I meant Venezuela.” Mixing […]
Inflation Is Back, Part 5: “The Cost To Run A Restaurant In New York City Is Unbearable”
If you’re running a business and the price of one thing goes up, you can work around it by economizing elsewhere. But when everything – wages, rent, supplies, taxes – goes up simultaneously, you have a problem that can be solved one of only two ways: Raise prices or close up shop. That’s the dilemma […]
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