You’d think the previous decade’s housing bust would still be fresh in the minds of mortgage lenders, if no one else. But apparently not. One of the drivers of that bubble was the emergence of private label mortgage “originators” who, as the name implies, simply created mortgages and then sold them off to securitizers, who […]
Gold And Silver Are Acting Like It’s 2008. They May Be Right
2008 has special significance for gold bugs, both because of the money they lost in August of year and the money they made in the half-decade that followed. Today’s world is beginning to feel eerily similar. Let’s start with a little background. The mid-2000s economy boomed in part because artificially low interest rates had ignited […]
More Emerging Market Chaos – How Long Before It Spreads To The Developed World?
Emerging market chaos is now front page news. Let’s start with Argentina, where the peso has resumed its plunge: In response: Argentina Central Bank hikes interest rate to 60 percent (AP) — Argentina’s Central Bank has increased its benchmark interest rate to 60 percent in efforts to halt a sharp slide in the value of […]
Let The Emerging Market Bailouts Begin: “We Don’t Have Much Choice”
To understand why Europe is watching Turkey’s financial crisis with alarm, you just have to see this chart: Spanish – and to a lesser extent French and Italian – banks have lent a lot of money to Turkey. So as that country spins closer to default, those banks and their governments are in danger of […]
Boring, Then Not Boring: What Happens When A Junior Gold Miner Gets It Right
Back in June Jay Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks newsletter published a nice write-up on a junior gold miner called Great Bear Resources, which included the following: What struck me initially about Great Bear was not only the high-grade gold drill intercepts but also the consistency of economic grade intercepts in the Red Lake […]
Is Tunisia the next emerging market to implode?
Seems like every few days a new developing country discovers that it can’t pay back the dollars and/or euros it borrowed back when “external foreign currency debt” seemed like a good thing. Next up: Tunisia, apparently. From today’s Wall Street Journal: Nation That Sparked Arab Spring Finds Itself a Springboard for Illegal Migration AL ATAYA, […]
Great News For (The Remaining) Gold Bugs: Gold AND Silver Futures Speculators Are Now Net Short
Google “yield curve inversion” and you’ll see that analysts have been waiting for this indicator to send its big signal for years. It’s getting close, so expect a flood of breathless/ominous headlines when it finally happens. The precious metals market has a similarly rare and portentous indicator: “net short speculators.” But today this one actually […]
Here’s How “External Dollar Debt” Produces An “Emerging Market Crisis”
Emerging market currencies are collapsing pretty much everywhere these days. But it’s safe to assume that most people don’t understand exactly what’s causing this outbreak, why it’s happening now, or what “external dollar debt” has to do with it. So here’s a quick primer followed by the obligatory apocalyptic prediction: Prelude: cheap dollar financing Pretend […]
Spectacular Gold COT Report: Prepare For A Huge Six Months
No need to mince words anymore. If the futures market still influences gold’s price, then that price is going to spike. And silver is better than gold. Since January, gold futures speculators have been trending from extremely bullish to scared short. And in the week ending last Tuesday (the most recent data available) they appeared […]
Why Aren’t Widespread Labor Shortages Translating Into Roaring Wage Inflation?
Google “labor shortage” or “wage hikes” and the result is a picture of an overheating economy. Some examples from August 10: 911 Emergency: Call Centers Can’t Find Workers Why Disneyland’s $15-an-hour labor deal is a win for workers everywhere Colorado small businesses seek help with labor shortage Washington growers struggle with labor shortage Now hiring: […]
Another Way Of Looking At The Pension Crisis, As “A Stealth Mortgage on Your House”
Money manager Rob Arnott and finance professor Lisa Meulbroek have run the numbers on underfunded pension plans and come up with an interesting – and highly concerning – new angle: That they impose a “stealth mortgage” on homeowners. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reported it today: The Stealth Pension Mortgage on Your House Most […]
Another Week, Another Improvement In Gold’s Prospects
The past few months have added some cred to the “sell in May and go away” rule of thumb for precious metals, as gold’s price action has been both boring and depressing. It’s now close to its 12-month low, while a lot of miners are providing material for the old joke: “Want to make a […]
Global Housing Bubble Is Popping. Here Comes The “Reverse Wealth Effect”
Just a few months ago, real estate was on fire. Prices were blowing past records set during the previous decade’s housing bubble as desperate buyers bought whatever was available at above the asking price while homeowners, confident that prices would keep rising, held out for the next big pop to sell. Notice on the following […]
New Age Fiscal Stimulus Is Unprecedented — And Ominous
In a normal business cycle, the economy expands for a while and businesses hire lots of new people at somewhat higher wages, generating enough tax revenue to shrink the government’s budget deficit – and in rare cases produce a surplus. So, for a while, the government borrows less money. Not this time. The current recovery […]
Is The Interest Rate Death Spiral Finally Starting?
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond is up by about 100 basis points from its 2018 low. Meanwhile, its government continues to borrow money and roll over its existing debt. But now it has to do so at ever-higher interest rates, which means it has to pay more interest, which means its deficits are rising, […]
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