The apocalyptic fires that hit California last month have left observers scratching their heads and wondering how destruction on that scale could be possible – and how much it will cost in the future if the causes aren’t addressed immediately. This morning’s Wall Street Journal concludes that 1) the problems aren’t being addressed and 2) […]
Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 17: In Latin America, Soaring Population + Soaring Debt = “Brutal Justice”
There are two ways of looking at the intersection of debt and population. One way says that if debt is rising population should also rise to allow future workers to pay for the retirement of today’s. More people thus make debt easier to manage. The other point of view is that debt and population soaring […]
Empty Words Are Failing. A Timeline For What Comes Next
A quick recap of the past couple of months: Stocks plunge. The politicians, bureaucrats and bankers who depend on artificially-elevated financial asset prices start to panic. The Fed announces that maybe it won’t have to raise interest rates any more, and the president announces a temporary cease-fire in the trade war with China. The markets […]
Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 16: France On Fire
Back in 2017, when some countries were handing power to populists promising variations of “drain the swamp,” France went for continuity with Emmanuel Macron, a young, moderate-sounding technocrat from the world of finance who promised to modernize the country without threatening the elites, the welfare state or the bureaucracy. Fast forward a couple of years […]
Home Sales Plunge, Trade Deficit Spikes, Fed Blinks
Looks like we just hit an inflection point. So far this morning: U.S. new home sales drop to more than 2-1/2-year low (Reuters) – Sales of new U.S. single-family homes tumbled to a more than 2-1/2-year low in October amid sharp declines in all four regions, further evidence that higher mortgage rates were hurting the […]
The Cost Of Insurance Is About To Jump
The argument over whether we’re in for global warming or global cooling and whether what’s coming is natural or human-made is fun but totally irrelevant from a financial perspective. The fact is that for whatever reason and in whatever direction, the climate is getting more aggressive. Monster snowstorms and apocalyptic fires are clearly becoming more […]
Has This Become A “Short Everything In Sight” Market?
One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their […]
Gold Is Setting Up For A Nice First-Half Rally
Precious metals investors don’t have much to console them these days. Just about the only bright spot is the nice, though ephemeral, pop in the gold/silver price that seems to happen every January. Sometimes it persists for six or so months, sometimes it ends before the snows do. But either way it’s more fun than […]
Corporate Share Buybacks Looking Dumber By The Day
A recent MarketWatch article notes that: GE was one of Wall Street’s major share buyback operators between 2015 and 2017; it repurchased $40 billion of shares at prices between $20 and $32. The share price is now $8.60, so the company has liquidated between $23 billion and $29 billion of its shareholders’ money on this […]
Michael Pento: Falling Corporate Earnings Will Fuel The Next Leg Of The Bear Market
If corporate earnings rise in 2019 like Wall Street analysts expect, stocks are a screaming buy at these bear-market levels. But earnings won’t rise and stocks are not a buy, says money manager Michael Pento: Earnings Recession of 2019 President Trump’s plan to stimulate the economy, known as The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, was […]
Marin Katusa: Tax Loss Selling Season Will Produce Some “Particularly Juicy Gold Stock Opportunities”
Investors with beaten-down gold/silver mining shares in their portfolio have three choices: Dump those losers for the tax loss before year-end; hold on in the hope that they’ve bottomed and will go up next year; or take advantage of others’ tax loss selling to pick up the bargains thus created. Commodities analyst Marin Katusa recommends […]
GE, Nvidia, Nordstrom, Bitcoin All Tank, And The Fed Notices
The sense that something isn’t right out there just got a lot stronger. And the Fed, in response, is now tiptoeing back towards QE. Let’s start with the sudden bad news: Chipmaker Nvidia plunges after missing on revenue and guidance (CNBC) – Nvidia stock fell as much as 19 percent Thursday after the company reported […]
As Oil Plunges, Energy Junk Bonds Turn Dangerous — Again
Back in 2104 oil was falling and hundreds of billions of dollars of energy junk bonds and leveraged loans looked to be at risk. Wolf Street had this to say at the time: Oil and Gas Bloodbath Spreads to Junk Bonds, Leveraged Loans. Defaults Next The price of oil has plunged nearly 40% since June […]
A Palpable Sense Of Panic
Based the last few days’ headlines you’d never know the world is in year 10 of a pretty good expansion. Check this out: Not terrified of a recession? These stocks hint you should be Cyclical commodities continue to weaken, gold moves in relation Italian banks on verge of new crisis on €400 million hole at […]
Yet Another Trillion-Dollar Unfunded Liability, California Wildfires Edition
Yesterday an entire California town burned down. Paridise, CA has (had) 27,000 residents and over 1,000 buildings, and now it’s pretty much gone. A fire started nearby on a windy day and within hours everything was ash and cinders. That fire and several others are still expanding across the state, threatening tens of thousands of […]
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