Money manager Rob Arnott and finance professor Lisa Meulbroek have run the numbers on underfunded pension plans and come up with an interesting – and highly concerning – new angle: That they impose a “stealth mortgage” on homeowners. Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reported it today: The Stealth Pension Mortgage on Your House Most […]
Another Week, Another Improvement In Gold’s Prospects
The past few months have added some cred to the “sell in May and go away” rule of thumb for precious metals, as gold’s price action has been both boring and depressing. It’s now close to its 12-month low, while a lot of miners are providing material for the old joke: “Want to make a […]
Global Housing Bubble Is Popping. Here Comes The “Reverse Wealth Effect”
Just a few months ago, real estate was on fire. Prices were blowing past records set during the previous decade’s housing bubble as desperate buyers bought whatever was available at above the asking price while homeowners, confident that prices would keep rising, held out for the next big pop to sell. Notice on the following […]
New Age Fiscal Stimulus Is Unprecedented — And Ominous
In a normal business cycle, the economy expands for a while and businesses hire lots of new people at somewhat higher wages, generating enough tax revenue to shrink the government’s budget deficit – and in rare cases produce a surplus. So, for a while, the government borrows less money. Not this time. The current recovery […]
Is The Interest Rate Death Spiral Finally Starting?
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond is up by about 100 basis points from its 2018 low. Meanwhile, its government continues to borrow money and roll over its existing debt. But now it has to do so at ever-higher interest rates, which means it has to pay more interest, which means its deficits are rising, […]
Welcome To The Third World, Part 28: The “Bottom Half” “Bolsters” The Economy By Going Into Debt
For maybe the best example of how financial trends are diverging at the opposite ends of the wealth spectrum, contrast the cash flowing into the accounts of the already-rich with the debt accumulating in the accounts of the “bottom half”: Mortgage, Groupon and card debt: how the bottom half bolsters U.S. economy (Reuters) – By […]
Public Sector Pensions: The Parasite Devours Its Host
The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted a better method of analysing the impact of public sector pensions on state and local budgets. The results are ominous for government finances, the bond markets, and pretty much everything else: Why Your Pension Is Doomed A new study shows that benefits are rising faster than GDP in most […]
Gold And Silver Futures Action Turning Positive
After a brutal few weeks in precious metals, you’d expect trend-following speculators to be heading for the exits. And the most recent gold and silver futures action — aka the commitment of traders (COT) report — shows exactly that. Which is good news. In gold, speculators – who tend to be wrong at big turning […]
Marin Katusa On The Coming Junior Gold Miner “Buying Binge”
Resource stock analyst and money manager Marin Katusa just sent out a blast email that explains — via some extraordinary charts — why large miners will soon start snapping up the best junior gold miners for big premiums over current prices. Here’s the whole thing: The Most Important Charts for Your Gold Stocks Right Now […]
Michael Pento: How The Trade War Will Hurt The US — And The World
Excerpted from Michael Pento’s Pento Portfolio Strategies China appears to have more to lose from a trade war with the US simply because the math behind surpluses and deficits renders the Bubble Blowers in Beijing at a big disadvantage. When you get right down to the nuclear option in a trade war, Trump could impose […]
US Housing Bubble Enters Stage Two: Suddenly-Motivated Sellers
Housing bubbles proceed in fairly predictable stages. Stage One is long and (initially) slow, fueled by excess central bank money creation or foreign demand or some other source of liquidity that encourages large numbers of people to buy houses. At first, sellers remember the peak prices from the previous bubble and aren’t willing to sell […]
Student Debt Bubble Expands As Parents Do More Of The Borrowing
Not so long ago, student debt was mostly the responsibility of students. That is, you paid for college with loans and then paid off those loans with the proceeds of the good job you got with an advanced education. These days it’s a little different. The cost of higher education is soaring, the jobs available […]
We Give Up! Part 3: China Stops Deleveraging, Tells Cities To Ramp Up Spending
China’s growth over the past decade has been not just impressive, but historically unprecedented. No single country has ever added this many factories, roads, airports and entire new cities in so short at time. But the transformation has come at a cost, in the form of a debt bubble that’s starting to look unstable. Beginning […]
Rising Wages = Shrinking Corporate Profit Margins … And Falling Stock Prices?
Today’s Wall Street Journal contains a couple of charts that illustrate a relationship that’s not getting much media attention these days: The fact that tightening labor markets are forcing companies to raise wages, in the process squeezing their own profit margins. Historically this margin compression has been either a cause of or contributor to cyclical […]
Inflation Is Back, Part 9: Two Sentences Say It All
Okay, one more look at wage inflation, followed by a short diatribe on the unfairness of life. As the labor markets get tighter, power is finally shifting from companies to workers. For some reason Iowa is leading the way (the promised two sentences are in bold): Say Hello to Full Employment — Want to know […]
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