Analysts disagree about which indicator is best for calling market tops, but the easiest to understand — and the most tragic — is probably margin debt. This is money borrowed by (usually individual or “retail”) investors against their existing stocks to buy more stocks. Investors tend to do this when markets are rising and using […]
China’s historic post-2009 debt binge flew largely under the radar — fooling most observers into thinking the global economy was recovering rather than just re-leveraging. Now Beijing is back at it, borrowing over $1 trillion in this year’s first quarter, buying up commodities and creating the illusion of global growth. But this time the scam […]
Between the “Panama papers” and the DC Madam’s customer list, we might be witnessing the end of personal (and corporate and government) privacy. The result? Less financial and geopolitical risk-taking and more gold buying. But don’t get burned by failing precious metal dealers. Here’s how to make sure you get what you pay for.
One by one the pillars of the recovery are toppling. Last year the Chinese infrastructure party ended and the shale oil boom went bust. More recently the FANG stocks went from pulling the market up to pushing it down. And today Apple — whose sales would always go up because everyone on Earth wants an […]
Next week we’ll find out if the longest-ever will-they-or-won’t-they drama involving a virtually insignificant quarter-point interest rate change will amount to anything. But either way, US monetary policy is already a lot tighter than it was a year ago. The Fed’s balance sheet, for instance, is a measure of how much new currency it is […]
For those who keep hearing about hedge funds but aren’t quite sure what they are: Think mutual fund with no rules. A hedge fund is an investment company that can do pretty much anything, from shorting currencies to betting on biotech takeovers to writing credit default swaps. This kind of freedom, as you can imagine, […]
Doug Noland’s thoughts are always interesting. But some times more than others. The former manager of the Prudent Bear fund and now proprietor of the Credit Bubble Bulletin website, Noland has been posting a weekly critique of the circus that is the global financial system for what seems like forever. During the long, long expansion […]