Inflation Is Back, Part 4: Maybe The Phillips Curve Was “Just Resting”
Economists have been struggling to explain how unemployment can fall to 4% without wages starting to accelerate. The following chart shows paychecks rising at about
Economists have been struggling to explain how unemployment can fall to 4% without wages starting to accelerate. The following chart shows paychecks rising at about
Automtaic Earth’s Raúl Ilargi Meijer just posted an essential essay on the world’s financial markets – or what used to be the world’s financial markets.
Back in the 1500s, a financial agent of Queen Elizabeth I named Thomas Gresham observed that that “bad money drives out good.” That is, if
Cornflakes and milk may or may not be getting more expensive, but some higher-profile things are rocking like it’s 1979. Houses, for example: Home prices
Jerome Powell, the new Fed Chairman, made his debut last week. It was jarring to see a modest, reasonable, straight-talking person in that spot after
Friday’s commitment of traders (COT) report for gold and silver offered more of the same. Which is to say the gold futures action was boring
So many patterns that have held for decades seem to have broken down, leading to one of two conclusions: Either this time really is different
For a while there it looked like the blow-off top of this expansion was somewhere in the future. Now it’s starting to look like 2017
Self-destruction usually happens in stages. At first there’s a binge in which the thrill outweighs the sense of transgression. This is usually followed by remorse,
In the next downturn (which may have started last week, yee-haw), the world’s central banks will face a bit of poetic justice: To keep their
The blockchain has discovered gold (or gold has discovered the blockchain). Either way, this means several things. First, the decades-long dream of a gold-backed cybercurrency
One of the hallmarks of late-stage bubbles is a shift of power from lenders to borrowers. As asset prices soar and interest rates plunge it
Late cycle behavior is everywhere these days. Governments have stopped worrying about deficits, and now the rest of us are apparently joining the orgy. Corporations,
Each quarter, Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland posts a “flow of funds” report that analyzes the debt and securities markets data released by the Fed
A recurring pattern of the past few decades involves governments promising to limit their borrowing, only to discover that hardly anyone cares. So target dates
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