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Now The Markets Themselves Are Too Big To Fail

by John Rubino ◆ August 7, 2016 24 Comments

Now The Markets Themselves Are Too Big To Fail

The First Rebuttal website has coined a term that gets to the heart of an increasingly dysfunctional system: The too-big-to-fail stock market. The general thesis is that most major countries are over-leveraged to that point of maybe being unable to survive a garden variety equities bear market – and are doing whatever it takes to […]

Big Names Bailing

by John Rubino ◆ June 10, 2016 11 Comments

The list of heavy hitters who are saying bad things about this world and its financial markets — while acting aggressively on their pessimism — is growing to alarming proportions. A few examples: Stan Druckenmiller: The bull market is exhausted; move to gold (MineWeb) – Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital Management LLC, […]

Tough Day For Tech Stocks — Tough Year For The Rest Of The Market?

by John Rubino ◆ April 22, 2016 7 Comments

Tough Day For Tech Stocks — Tough Year For The Rest Of The Market?

Coming into this corporate earnings season, everyone seemed to expect disappointment. But they thought it would come from the energy sector and the banks that had lent that sector way too much money (see Goldman Sachs is a flattened slug). Technology was, as always, thought to be immune to the vagaries of the Old Economy. […]

The Great Unicorn Die-Off: Tech (Sort-Of) Crashes, Much More To Come

by John Rubino ◆ February 22, 2016 3 Comments

The Great Unicorn Die-Off: Tech (Sort-Of) Crashes, Much More To Come

In good times, Silicon Valley is the kind of place we all fantasize about: Shiny new buildings full of genius techies rollerblading down the halls, eating free gourmet food and growing richer with each financing round. But in bad times it resembles that Florida housing subdivision in The Big Short, where the buildings remain but […]

The Bear Is At The Door, Part 1: Momentum Stocks Getting Crushed

by John Rubino ◆ February 5, 2016 6 Comments

The Bear Is At The Door, Part 1: Momentum Stocks Getting Crushed

One of the common transitions that bull markets go through as they age and die is a narrowing of leadership. As formerly strong sectors begin to stall out, investors shift into whatever is still looking good — that is, whatever still has upward momentum. Eventually capital becomes concentrated in just a few names. Then those […]

DeFANGed

by John Rubino ◆ January 13, 2016 6 Comments

DeFANGed

Yesterday’s bulletproof stocks, led by the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), are getting whacked today. Amazon is down 100 points from its high, 32 of those points coming today. Netflix is off by nearly 10%. Even Google, which really does seem bulletproof operationally, is down 3%. Most of these companies are and will remain […]

Stock Market’s Remaining Pillars Are Crumbling

by John Rubino ◆ January 6, 2016 13 Comments

Stock Market’s Remaining Pillars Are Crumbling

Once every decade or so investor credulity reaches a point where even seasoned money managers buy into the notion of “one decision” stocks — that is, shares of companies so insanely great that they’re virtually guaranteed to keep going up. Valuation is irrelevant, as is the state of the economy. Nothing matters but the unbeatable […]

Junk Bond Crisis Starts To Metastasize

by John Rubino ◆ December 14, 2015 11 Comments

Junk Bond Crisis Starts To Metastasize

With junk bonds finally reverting to their intrinsic value, the question on everyone’s mind is “what blows up next?” Here’s the first in what might be a long, painful list: CLOs Hammered as Energy Rout Plays Havoc With Other Markets (Bloomberg) – The bust in commodities that’s roiling junk bonds is also taking its toll […]

The Least Surprising Stat Of The Week: Corporate Insiders Are Dumping Their Stock

by John Rubino ◆ December 10, 2015 15 Comments

The Least Surprising Stat Of The Week: Corporate Insiders Are Dumping Their Stock

Here’s one for the “actions speak louder than words” file: Massive insider selling spurs stock market concerns (CNBC) – Corporate insiders have been selling their shares at near-record levels, and according to some, this could be a sign for outside investors to start selling as well. Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider […]

The End is Near, Part 6: Individual Investors Rediscover Individual Stocks

by John Rubino ◆ December 8, 2015 5 Comments

The End is Near, Part 6: Individual Investors Rediscover Individual Stocks

Since their introduction in 1993, exchange traded funds (ETFs) have become a huge hit with retail (that is, small individual) investors, for a very good reason: As “passive” funds that just match a given market or sector with minimal trading and extremely low fees, ETFs offer exposure to equities without requiring a lot of judgment. […]

Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels

by John Rubino ◆ November 30, 2015 4 Comments

Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels

Think of “market internals” as the blood pressure and insulin levels of the financial world. They operate below the surface, frequently unnoticed, but over time they have a big say in the health of the patient. And right now they’re pointing to a heart attack. Let’s start with junk bonds. These are loans to financially […]

Corporations Are Liquidating Themselves, One Buyback At A Time

by John Rubino ◆ November 18, 2015 9 Comments

Corporations Are Liquidating Themselves, One Buyback At A Time

In every bubble there are trends so obviously crazy that it’s hard to see how anyone, let alone mainstream money managers, can buy in. And yet buy in they do. This time around there are almost too many such trends to count. But perhaps the most obvious is corporate share repurchases. Though already a well-known […]

Another Brutal Monday

by John Rubino ◆ November 15, 2015 10 Comments

One of the challenges of managing money is the (increasingly-frequent) need to translate non-financial tragedies into action to protect clients and, yes, profit from the broader world’s troubles. So while most people react to events in Paris with stunned sympathy and/or impotent rage, the financial community is deciding what to buy and sell. And right […]

What Can’t Go On Won’t Go On, Part 1: Corporate Leverage

by John Rubino ◆ November 3, 2015 7 Comments

What Can’t Go On Won’t Go On, Part 1: Corporate Leverage

By now everyone knows the corporate share repurchase story, about how major companies are engineering higher per-share profits and share prices by buying back their stock and raising their dividends. But just how much they’re spending may still come as a shock. Today’s New York Times quotes Laurence Fink, CEO of mutual fund giant of […]

Walmart’s Ominous Stock Market Signal

by John Rubino ◆ October 16, 2015 9 Comments

Walmart’s Ominous Stock Market Signal

Companies like Walmart and McDonalds’s have made their investors rich by squeezing costs and cutting prices. But it turns out that low-cost means low-wage, and as this model spread it contributed to the now-impossible-to-ignore migration of income and wealth from workers to owners of the capital and symbol manipulation skills that such a system demands. […]

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