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Empty Words Are Failing. A Timeline For What Comes Next

A quick recap of the past couple of months:

Stocks plunge.

The politicians, bureaucrats and bankers who depend on artificially-elevated financial asset prices start to panic.

The Fed announces that maybe it won’t have to raise interest rates any more, and the president announces a temporary cease-fire in the trade war with China.

The markets bounce, leading some to conclude that the worst is over and it’s time to go back to buying the dip.

A larger number of people conclude that the changes in policy were really just empty words. No actual actions had taken place.

Stocks start falling again. You are here — as this is written on Tuesday Dec 4, the Dow is down about 300 points.

What happens next?
Think of the past few months as the first act in a play that is performed in virtually every business cycle, with later acts following a predictable script. Here’s how it’s likely to go this time:

Words give way to modest action (early 2019). When the markets figure out that empty promises don’t change the underlying reality of slowing growth, falling corporate profits and rising loan defaults, they return to panic mode. Governments are then forced to actually do things to try to stop the bleeding. In the current US case, that means the Fed will announce that it’s done raising rates and will soon start cutting. Trump, meanwhile, will cut a trade deal with China that accomplishes little but removes the future uncertainty.

This will be greeted with another few days of market euphoria, followed by the realization that, again, nothing substantive has changed. Stocks will resume their decline. Let’s call this “2008 revisited.”

DJIA 2008 empty words fail

The action turns serious (mid-2019). Now Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Washington (i.e., the 1%) are in full-on panic mode, and ready to take radical steps to save themselves. The Fed, which just a few months ago had proclaimed rates to be “neutral,” which is to say just right, starts cutting in earnest. ZIRP is now on the horizon, with NIRP promised in a “whatever it takes” speech by the Fed chair.

The Fed also re-introduces QE, with some twists. Either it’s bigger, or broader to include equities and real estate in addition to bonds, or both.

The government starts forgiving student loans and possibly auto mortgages. Tax cuts move through Congress, along with infrastructure spending that dwarfs any previous roads/bridges program.

Federal deficits exceed $2 trillion and will – Washington assures its citizens – stay that high for as long as it takes to restore “normal markets.”

Then things get really interesting (2020 and beyond). At this point in the usual script things start to stabilize. The torrent of public money flowing into financial assets more-or-less offsets the private money that’s fleeing, and prices stop falling. Loans at essentially zero cost start to entice businesses and individuals back into the economy, and private sector debt stops falling and starts rising. “Normality” returns.

The question this time around is whether there’s a limit to aggressive monetary ease. Last time it took tens of trillions of dollars to stabilize a flat-lining economy. In the intervening decade global debt has risen dramatically, which implies that the next bail-out will have to be even bigger. Will it work, or will the markets recoil from the spectacle of electronic printing presses running flat-out forever? Will capital flow away from financial assets and into real things that governments can’t create with a mouse click? And will this stampede out of the currency destabilize the system? Here’s how Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises described the process:

But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against “real” goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

So which is coming, the standard final act or a crack-up boom? That, alas, won’t be clear until after the fact. If the last round of ZIRP, NIRP and QE didn’t create a crack-up boom, it’s possible that the next, even more extreme iterations of these policies will “work” just as well as the originals. It’s also possible that they won’t.

Either way, gold and silver should do just fine.

 

Emigrate While You Still Can

24 thoughts on "Empty Words Are Failing. A Timeline For What Comes Next"

  1. The 2020’s will bring about Weimar style conditions to the western world, as well as China. We will see the removal of democracy and replacement of military style dictatorships headed by men like Salvini and Bolsonaro. Foreigners will leave because the economies don’t work anymore and the local populations are suddenly foaming at the mouth to get rid of them. Race-mixers will pay a massive social price for their dalliances against nature. Fortunately for us, the left’s failures across the 20th century give the Right the perfect footing for a large-scale re-taking of leadership and culture this time, unlike this same situation 100 years ago.

    Most western countries are not bankrupt because of war: they are bankrupt because of diversity and welfare programs given to foreigners.

    The order of nature is re-asserting itself against globalism, diversity and leftism.

  2. Being “jew” is a CHOICE.

    Divide and conquer satan’s Goddamn jews by attacking their satanic belief system.
    Judas-ism, the “religion” of jews, is, literally, a satanic mind-control cult.
    99% of jews march in lock step to satan’s zionist jew dictate.
    Any person (i.e., the jews) who takes the talmud as their holy book has been utterly brainwashed by PURE EVIL.
    WHY does he, the jew, make this choice, to be a jew, to be the enemy of all humanity?

    Jews CHOOSE to be the enemy of the non-jew.
    Jews INITIATE the cycle of hate.
    It’s EXPLICITLY stated over and over in their “holiest book,” the talmud.

    See talmud quotes here:
    http://rense.com/general86/talmd.htm.
    https://stopcg.wordpress.com/the-talmud-and-the-jew-world-order/

    THESE ARE THE TEACHINGS OF SATAN.

    WHY, WHY, WHY would ANYONE want to have ANY association with this so-called religion of jews, this filthy judas-ism, this in-your-face PURE EVIL? WHY?

    It’s a satanic mind-control cult.

    WHY jew? Why do you CHOOSE to be a Goddamn jew?!!!
    WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY?

    Must read:
    https://www.henrymakow.com/2018/01/what-being-jewish-really-means.html
    https://www.henrymakow.com/jews_a_religion_not_a_nationra.html
    https://www.henrymakow.com/lucifers_chosen_people.html
    https://www.henrymakow.com/2017/12/chabad-trump-family-cult.html
    https://profhugodegaris.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/learning-to-hate-the-me-jews.pdf

  3. And just how long has the Dollar been going to collapse? All my life by my recollection. When is this Dollar going to collapse? As soon as you buy gold from the sharks! (not)

  4. Maybe a Paul Volcker move to quench the excesses causing a deflation and recession. After that fails to work and Yellow Jacket riots they may crank up the printing presses for one last gasp and hyperinflation. A new currency devalued like Russia in the 90’s. Shortages and rationing. Blame placed on the Chinese as America must invent an enemy. Do you realize your McDonalds Big Mack is now $5 …maybe in time it will be discounted at $25. Hungry desperate masses are often complacent and desperate for any Government solution. A slow road to serfdom and enslavement.

    1. Who you trying to convince? Us or yourself? To me that sounds like what someone with no gold or silver would say…

  5. There won’t be much in the way of scraps of paper. Most of the new currency will be digital. It will come and go in the blink of an eye and if you get bailed in by any means or the currency is reset or the bank goes under there will be no rock solid evidence that you ever really had any currency at all. Call it the perfect scam because that is precisely what it is. When it happens be sure to praise your peers and self appointed super gods because bringing the perps to justice is treason
    and antisemitism…… They have you now goyim…
    Got gold or silver?

  6. this all may be but GoldMoney.com is NOT the world’s most trusted precious metals custodian, I’d say they’re too full of Schif…

  7. Very good hypothesis. I believe 2020 and beyond will make what we experience up until 2020 with regard to government intervention and the stability of markets look like normalcy. Very strange things will have to happen to keep the party going. Or will the party end long before that? Another very likely scenario. The whole thing could detonate.

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  8. I believe the reason the market stays overvalued is because traders have to make money today. Everyone knows that the market is overvalued but how can a trader make money on that today? So they all wait. But when the hopium runs out it’s all over because everyone is going to sell at once.

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