Just a quick, happy update on the gold/silver COT reports. See last week’s post for a little more background.
Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing.
The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish.
Historically, the kind of internal structure now evolving in the futures market has signaled the start of a new upswing in prices. That may or may not hold this time around. But if it’s not a screaming buy, it is an indication that that day is getting closer.
Here’s the same data in graphical form for silver. Note that speculator net long positions (the gray bars in the top half of the chart) are getting close to zero, which in the past has always resulted in a good few months.